The Nasdaq Composite snapped a four-day losing streak on Monday, even as Treasury yields reached levels not seen in over a decade.
The tech-heavy index gained 1.6% to close at 13,497.59, its biggest one-day advance since July 28, when it rallied 1.9%. The S&P 500 gained 0.69% to close at 4,399.77. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.11% to 34,463.69.
Palo Alto Networks rallied 14.5% on stronger-than-expected earnings, and Nvidia popped 8.3% ahead of its earnings report due Wednesday. Tesla and Meta climbed 7% and 2.4%, respectively. The S&P 500 tech sector gained 2.26% on Monday.
Those moves came even as the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield hit a high of 4.34%, reaching its highest level since November 2007. Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, are typically bad for tech and other growth stocks as they lessen the value of their promised future earnings. That made the day's tech gains notable.
"I think the path of least resistance is the momentum that you've seen coming into this week," said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. "The 10-year Treasury continues to rise here, and although you did see positive impulse for markets and in particular cyclicals, I think, ultimately, the 10-year Treasury is going to weigh on valuations and put more downward pressure on the markets as the week develops."
Monday's moves come after weekly declines on Wall Street, which added to the market's late-summer slump. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell for a third straight week, while the Dow had its biggest weekly decline since March.
"I think the dip you saw last week was the beginning of more to come," said David Bianco, New York-based chief investment officer at DWS Group Americas. "The bond market is putting up a really attractive alternative to equity investors—unless somebody believes that the S&P 500 is gonna go from the no earnings growth it's been stuck in for about two years now to really strong earnings growth."
This week, investors are anticipating an address Friday morning from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank's annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Nasdaq, S&P 500 end Monday in the green
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced Monday, gaining 206.8 points, or about 1.6%.
The S&P 500 also ended Monday higher, inching up 30 points, or 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 37 points, or 0.1%, however.
— Pia Singh
Allstate and other insurers will be looking to raise customer prices, analyst says
Bank of America's Joshua Shanker says he's sticking with his buy rating on Allstate. "While these losses 'feel' unprecendented, with a longer time frame, a similar confluence of events has happened previously," he said. Allstate shares are down less than 1% in trading Monday, but the stock is down 22% year to date.
Shanker anticipates that the industry will be looking to raise homeowners' insurance prices to offset the risk of climate change if state regulators allow them to do it.
"The recent wildfires in Hawaii (which we expect to cost Allstate $125mn in 3Q23 cat losses) demonstrate that this is a nationwide and global trend, not only confined to the more hurricane- and earthquake-prone states," he said.
—Christina Cheddar Berk
Powell will likely focus on short-term monetary policy in Wyoming, Allianz economist says
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may not focus on what's best for him in his remarks from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week, according to Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor.
"What's likely is that he's probably going to talk about short-term monetary policy issues," El-Erian said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." "I don't think that's the best thing to do, because it is a very delicate situation right now."
Still, El-Erian said the central bank leader could be helped given the "target-rich environment," adding that there's "a lot" he can talk about.
— Alex Harring
Trouble looms for Wall Street smartphone forecasts ahead of iPhone 15 launch, Loop Capital says
Already weak numbers for smartphone sales will find little help from the launch of the iPhone 15, according to Loop Capital.
Managing director John Donovan said in a Sunday note that the firm already anticipated a slow start to third-quarter smartphone sales given historical comparisons, and the results have so far been below downwardly revised expectations.
"Loop's CQ3 projection incorporated this lukewarm start to the quarter and yet the totals thus far are running behind the already depressed projections," Donovan said. "Perhaps stated another way, even the most upbeat projections for the Apple iPhone 15 launch and related 'rising tides raises all boats' approach would offer little chance for the overall smartphone market to achieve consensus unit and revenue levels for CQ3 2023."
— Brian Evans
Stocks are headed for a year-end rally even as recession concerns rise, strategist says
Stocks are under pressure once more as rising yields, seasonal weakness and some hawkishness from the Federal Reserve weigh on investor sentiment.
"I think investors are worrying once again that a recession may be back on the table," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
All three major averages are down in August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average off by 3.5%, the S&P 500 lower by 4.9% and the Nasdaq Composite down by 7%. Even so, the strategist expects the pullback is temporary, and recommended investors remain exposed to tech stocks.
"Right now, the market is going through a temporary digestion of recent gains," Stovall said. "That should probably last another month. And then I believe that we are headed for an end-of-year rally when we find that the Fed has likely finished raising rates, the economy is not headed for a recession and a 2008-like debt situation is not at hand."
— Sarah Min
Wall Street starts to notice homebuilding stocks are rolling over
At least twice on Monday, Wall Street noticed that homebuilding stocks that have been on a tear in 2023 have begun to roll over.
"One group that is finally reacting to yields and long-term overbought conditions is the homebuilders," BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky said in a note to clients. "The ITB ETF spent several weeks consolidating between 86 and 89, then broke down last week below the '22 highs and is seeing downside follow through today. It is also breaking its uptrend from the Oct. lows. We see risk at least back towards $74 for this ETF."
Meanwhile, Chris Verrone at Strategas Research Partners noted the same trend in a note out Monday. "They're still in longer-term uptrends, but the sharp breaks below the 50-day for the Homebuilders last week punctuate the shift in market tone," he wrote.
D.R. Horton, NVR and Lennar have all climbed 27%-30% in 2023 as homebuyers have been pushed into buying new homes rather than existing homes, where inventory is sharply lower due to homeowners who are unwilling to move and give up their low-interest mortgages.
— Scott Schnipper, Michael Bloom
AMC falls with stock conversion on horizon
AMC Entertainment tumbled as investors readied for a stock conversion slated for Friday.
The meme stock was down more than 23% in Monday's session. On Friday, the company's preferred equity units, better known as APES, are expected to become common stock.
Shares hit a low not seen in more than a year on Monday. The stock has lost more than 23% year to date.
— Alex Harring
SentinelOne pops 15% on report it's exploring a sale
Pullbacks are 'completely normal within a bull market,' according to technical strategist
August has been a volatile month for U.S. equities, with the three major averages all down 3% or more for the month. The recent pullback is a pullback from overbought levels — but that doesn't indicate the start of a bear market, according to LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist.
"The recent jump in interest rates has proven to be too much too fast for stocks to absorb. ... Deteriorating economic conditions in China and weak seasonal trends have been additional factors behind the selling pressure," Turnquist said.
"However, don't panic, pullbacks are completely normal within a bull market. With volatility comes opportunity," Turnquist added. The strategist cited a buying opportunity back into the bull market in the coming months, as valuations reset and overbought conditions recede.
— Hakyung Kim
Jefferies upgrades gold product manufacturer Acushnet Holdings
Jefferies thinks golf giant Acushent will remain dominant as popularity grows, upgrading the stock to buy from hold in a Monday note. Acushnet stock added 4.5% in afternoon trading.
"Looking ahead, GOLF is poised to defend its #1 share in golf balls and shoes, and gain share in #3 clubs, particularly metals, through broader appeal; while expanding margins on steady MSD% [mid single-digit] revs," analyst Randal Konik said.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.
— Brian Evans
Nvidia's quarterly print could be a 'critical' market event, Wolfe Research says
All eyes are on Nvidia's quarterly print out Wednesday after the bell, and what could prove to be another "critical" event for the market, according to Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek.
In May, the chipmaker reported a blowout quarter and massive upside to guidance due to artificial intelligence that boosted the broader sector.
"More specifically, we believe that it was a main catalyst for many bellwethers to separate from Fed liquidity and instead start trading on 'AI optimism' and price momentum," he wrote in a Monday note.
— Samantha Subin
Stocks making the biggest moves midday
These are some of the stocks making the biggest moves in midday trading on Monday:
- Palo Alto Networks — The security software provider jumped 15.2% after Palo Alto beat expectations for earnings Friday.
- Nvidia — Shares climbed 4.7% after HSBC reiterated a buy rating and raised its target price on the chipmaker. Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday.
- Xpeng — The Chinese electric vehicle maker jumped 9.8% following an upgrade to buy from neutral by Bank of America.
— Alex Harring
Bank of America upgrades XPeng
Bank of America says XPeng will benefit from a partnership with German automaker Volkswagen.
The firm upgraded Xpeng stock to buy from neutral in a Monday note, and predicted the company will turn a profit in 2025. XPeng stock gained 8.1% in midday trading.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.
— Brian Evans
Eli Lilly hits all-time high while 13 S&P 500 stocks touch fresh lows
Eli Lilly was the only S&P 500 stock trading at all-time highs going back to 1952 when the company offered its first public shares of stock. The stock is higher this year by roughly 50%.
On the other hand, 13 stocks in the broad index dropped to fresh lows including a slew of consumer staples and utilities names.
Consumer staples names General Mills was trading at lows not seen since June 2022. Meanwhile, Campbell Soup Company dropped to lows not seen since March 2022. The sector was last down by 0.54%.
Meanwhile, utility stocks Eversource Energy and Dominion Energy dropped to their lowest levels since 2020. The utilities sector was the worst laggard in the S&P 500 Monday, lower by 1.08%.
Here are the S&P 500 names hitting fresh lows.
- Conagra Brands trading at lows not seen since April 2020
- Campbell Soup Company trading at lows not seen since March 2022
- General Mills trading at lows not seen since June 2022
- Kellogg trading at lows not seen since March 2022
- Walgreens Boots Alliance trading at lows not seen since July 2010
- Illumina trading at lows not seen since Mar 2017
- Insulet trading at lows not seen since June 2022
- Sealed Air trading at lows not seen since July 2020
- American Electric Power trading at lows not seen since March 2021
- AES Corporation trading at lows not seen since October 2020
- Dominion Energy trading at lows not seen since September 2011
- Eversource Energy trading at lows not seen since March 2020
- NextEra Energy trading at lows not seen since September 2020
— Sarah Min, Chris Hayes
10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007
Rise in Treasury yields may or may not be tied to resilience in the economy, says Raymond James
The bond market has started an uptick in recent months on what may be a stronger economic picture, according to Raymond James. Recent economic data is telling a story of strong balance sheets, wages enabling consumer spending in spite of higher rates, as well as relatively strong investment growth, according to analyst Tavis McCourt.
Bond yields have surged over the past two weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield is up more than 8 basis points Monday morning at 4.33%, marking its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, yields on the 2-year Treasury jumped 6 basis points at 4.996%.
"How long this resiliency can last is unclear, but the bond market started shifting its view over the last two months, with bond yields surging was the story of the past two weeks," McCourt wrote in a Sunday note.
"But then again, maybe the bond market is just being whipped around by the giant financial experiment being run by Japan and China, and we are just searching for economic rationale to movements that are far more technical in nature," McCourt said.
— Hakyung Kim
Tech faces headwinds from rising yields, waning AI enthusiasm, Capital Economics says
Tech stocks face increased headwinds from rising risk-free Treasury yields and less of a mania for all things tied to Artificial Intelligence, according to a recent note from London-based Capital Economics. As a result, the firm expects "the IT sector will fall further over the rest of 2023 in absolute terms."
Tech was also buoyed in the first half by stronger-than-forecast U.S. economic growth as well as better corporate profits, but now Capital Economics' assistant economist James Reilly expects "U.S. economic data to disappoint, causing risk appetite to sour. And we suspect that AI euphoria will be kept in check as investors focus on the incoming economic data."
That will offset any improvement in the tech outlook caused by falling Treasury yields. Capital Economics forecasts the 10-year yield dropping to 3.25% by the end of 2023, and is more optimistic about the outlook for tech in both 2024 and 2025.
— Scott Schnipper