Goldman Sachs says this blood cancer treatment stock can gain 70% ahead of planned drug launch

Published Tue, Sep 12 20238:00 AM EDTUpdated Tue, Sep 12 202311:44 AM EDT

Goldman Sachs thinks late-stage biotechnology company Geron was due for a correction and now has the potential to surge higher. Analyst Corinne Jenkins upgraded Geron to buy from neutral. She maintained her price target of $4, which suggests 70.1% upside for the stock from Monday's closing price. The analyst highlighted the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's acceptance of Geron's new drug application for imetelstat, a treatment for individuals with transfusion-dependent anemia in lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, or MDS. The FDA said a decision on the drug's approval will be due in mid June of next year, indicating the drug could be launched in the U.S. by the end of the first half of 2024. "Based on our review of the data, conversations with KOLs, and regulatory precedent, we maintain our view that imetelstat is likely to be approved in this setting, where we estimate $1.5 billion in unadjusted peak sales," Jenkins wrote in a Monday note. "We see the recent pullback in shares as presenting a buying opportunity for the stock." Shares of Geron have taken a hit this year with a 27% drop this quarter and 3.3% in year-to-date losses. This activity has been driven, in part, by investor disappointment following the FDA's decision to review Geron's MDS drug through its "standard review" process rather than priority review . Regulators are also hosting an advisory committee meeting as part of their review, according to the note, adding to negative sentiment. Jenkins noted that this meeting "provides opportunity to discuss questions or difficulties but is not inherently a negative signal for approval," reiterating the firm's confidence in the drug's approval. "Despite the AdCom, the physicians we spoke with see a very high likelihood of imetelstat approval based on the publicly available data," the analyst said. "In their view, the clinical risk/benefit is sufficient to support approval given the i) efficacy, ii) manageable (though not benign) safety, and iii) degree of unmet need in this population." — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.