A 'panic spike' is possible late October into November, says Bank of America's chart analyst

Published Mon, Oct 23 20232:07 PM EDTUpdated Mon, Oct 23 20233:21 PM EDT

A panic spike could send stocks higher heading into November, according to Bank of America. Stocks are coming off a losing week Friday. Notably, the S & P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average, suggesting a break in the uptrend, and drew near a key psychological support level at 4,200. The broader index closed Friday at 4,224.16. For investors, a retest of the 4,200 level could mean stocks will soon bounce from their recent pullback. Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier said the CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index (VIX3M) and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) could flash an oversold reading below 1.0 as the S & P 500 nears its support levels, a possible capitulation signal indicating it's time for investors to buy. .VIX 3M mountain VIX The VIX3M, a measure of volatility over three months, and the VIX, a measure over 30 days, are used in tandem by strategists to gain better insight into the S & P 500's implied volatility. "A late October retest of the 4200 area on the SPX suggests that an oversold spike below 1.0 on the 3-month VIX vs the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) may happen from late October into November," Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America, said in a Friday note. "Our last Market Comment … highlighted a bearish breakdown and retest on the VIX3M/VIX that increases the risk, or potential, for this climactic signal for tactical sentiment," Suttmeier continued. The technical strategist does not expect a bottom for the S & P 500 until the U.S. dollar and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield both reach a peak, without which he said, "the SPX is at risk for deeper downside." Regardless, Bank of America broadly anticipates the S & P 500 will close the year out at 4,600, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey . That's roughly 9% above Friday's close for the index. "In our view, this tactical panic likely coincides with a break below the 200-day MA at 4233 (SPX closed below it on 10/20) and the "FOMO rally / soft-landing" breakout point near 4200 on the SPX," Suttmeier added. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.