Gold is testing the key $2,000 level. Why analysts are bullish and where they think it can go next

Published Tue, Oct 31 202311:49 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Nov 2 202312:16 PM EDT

Chart analysts are optimistic on the price of gold as the metal tests a ceiling that has previously capped gains. Spot gold has traded around the closely-watched $2,000 level in recent days for the first time since May. While the marker has been tested unsuccessfully at various times over the past several years, some analysts believe this moment could be different — and see the potential for further advances. "Getting above $2,000 was a big start," said Thomas DiFazio, director of investment and technical macro strategy at Strategas. And, if previous highs can be surpassed, "we do think it's got some room to run here." Can this time be different? The $2,000 level is monitored because it's psychologically important for investors, said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. Now, chart experts are closely watching levels between $2,060 and $2,080 — which align with previous highs — to see if gold definitively breaks above its previous range. Gold has tested these price points in 2020, 2022 and earlier this year, though CappThesis founder Frank Cappelleri said those challenges were typically followed by aggressive selloffs. XAU= ALL mountain Gold / US Dollar Spot But this time could prove to be different, according to Cappelleri and other chart watchers. That's partly because today's high demand for what has historically been perceived as a safe haven investment stems from rising geopolitical concerns tied to the Israel-Hamas War. Higher interest rates also play a role. On a more technical level, Cappelleri said the 2023 pullback in gold following earlier gains has been shallower than those in 2020, 2021 and 2022. In other words, a " higher low ." That indicates investors are more eager to buy the dip this time, which can herald further advances. The recent rebound has also created a bullish chart formation. Because of this strong run, DiFazio noted that any consolidation of these recent gains may prove benign and doesn't rule out gold moving above the previous highs in the near future. He said investors should view decline to the $1,900 to $1,950 per ounce area as an opportunity to add exposure. "It's OK for gold to pause here," DiFazio said. "Consolidations are healthy. You could use that weakness opportunistically." He also noted that gold has a seasonal tailwind going into the end of the year, which can strengthen the argument that the yellow metal should break out of the recent range. Though DiFazio said the metal usually struggles in October, it's on pace this year to see its best month since November 2022. 'A change of tone' While many analysts are optimistic on gold, there is wide variation on where they think the price will ultimately go. DiFazio and Mark Newton, Fundstrat's global head of technical strategy, both see gold reaching $2,500 per ounce. That's based on analysis of previous movement in the metal's chart to estimate how high it could go in the near term. "Gold makes a lot of sense," Newton said. "It's not only worked, but momentum has turned positive." Cappelleri, meanwhile, is first watching $2,180 after previous highs, based on a technical analysis of measured moves. From there, he said to next look at $2,380. Newton recommended investors follow the performance of the yen — which has recently whipsawed due to a Bank of Japan policy change — given its historical correlation to gold. Investors looking for a similar play to gold can also try silver , he added. Multiple chart analysts said part of gold's newfound appeal is due to the recent pullback in the stock market. DiFazio said that gold's strong performance compared to banks — known as the " paper vs. rock " relationship — can signal investors are increasingly defensive and favor the precious metal over more risk-oriented assets. He also pointed to gold's return in 2023 eclipsing that of the S & P 500 as a sign of a broader change in sentiment within financial markets. "Investors now are looking towards gold as this safe haven that maybe did not seem as attractive on a relative basis before," DiFazio said. "Gold has started to work versus other risk assets, which is a change of tone."