The latest AI derivative play Micron Tech is surging double digits. What analysts say happens next

Published Thu, Mar 21 202411:14 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Mar 21 20241:31 PM EDT

Micron Technology stock is surging as much as 18% Thursday after strong fiscal second-quarter results, but analysts think the stock has still more room to run. Micron revenue and profits topped Wall Street estimates in the latest quarter, and also issued better-than-expected revenue guidance. Micron expects revenue of $6.6 billion in the third quarter ending in May, while analysts polled by LSEG forecast $6.2 billion. After Thursday's gain, Micron shares are now higher by 13% in 2024, after soaring 71% in 2023. MU YTD mountain Micron Technology stock. Micron's role in providing flash storage and memory for computers, cellphones and especially data centers puts the company at the forefront of the bull market for all things tied to artificial intelligence. Expansive data centers are a key part of powering AI software and projects. Looking ahead, Citigroup analyst Christopher Danely thinks Boise, Idaho-based Micron can ship $700 million worth of high bandwidth memory (HBM) interfaces in 2024, and says its price-to-earnings multiple will expand due to the still strong AI opportunity. He also forecast a potential uptick in demand for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips as another positive catalyst. Danely pointed to Micron peers Broadcom and AMD , which saw their multiples expand by 120% from the beginning of 2023, as providing a baseline for Micron's own multiple if the DRAM opportunity is captured. "We believe limited production growth and modest capex increases will create a sustainable DRAM upturn," Danely wrote in a report Thursday. "We anticipate the global DRAM market to be under supplied in 2024," he added. Citi maintained a buy rating on Micron with a $150 per share price target, implying nearly 60% upside from Wednesday's $94 close. Danely also raised his 2024 full-year revenue and earnings estimates to $24.65 billion and 18 cents per share from $22.53 billion and an expected loss of 58 cents, respectively. Citigroup called Micron its top pick in the chip industry, saying it expects the stock to sell for 15 times calendar 2025 earnings per share, which would be above Micron's "historical average but below AI peers." According to Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari, a recent downturn in the memory market was more likely due to one-time factors that may signal Micron and its peers will benefit from a rebound in DRAM sales. "[W]e continue to believe that the depth of the recent downturn was caused by the pandemic (and the associated atypical volatility in demand) and that overall DRAM industry fundamentals will return to a positive trajectory on a through-cycle basis," Hari said. Goldman reiterated a buy investment rating on Micron on Thursday and raised its 12-month price target by 9% to $122 per share from $112.