Most investors are split on whether the Fed will announce a reduction in its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program on Wednesday or in the first quarter of 2014. But some are starting to argue that the bond market is already looking beyond the first reduction, or tapering, and onto the future of quantitative easing.
"The market is anticipating a taper, and whether it's tomorrow, whether it's January or March, the process has begun," said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at the Lindsey Group. "So investors need to take the analysis one step further, and see whether the Fed is looking at this as a one-and-done ... or if this is the beginning of the end" of QE.
The market last predicted a taper in September, on the strength of guidance from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. But partially due to threats of a government shutdown and U.S. debt default, Bernanke decided to hold off. Boockvar says the bond market is once again geared up for a tapering announcement.
"The bond market, at a 2.85 yield [on the 10-year note] is back where it was a day before the Fed chose not to taper, therefore implying that the Fed has teed up the market—or the market has teed up the Fed—in anticipation of an eventual taper," Boockvar said. "So in the market's eyes, it's a matter of when, not if."
(Read more: Treasurys edge higher ahead of Fed meeting)