CNBC's Boldest Predictions for 2011

CNBC's Boldest Predictions
There's nothing like a bold, even, outrageous prediction, and in compiling some 150 predictions from three-dozen staffers and contributors this year, we came away with some out-of-the-box answers. Though they may be bold, they are certainly in the realm of possibilities. So, take a look at who at CNBC is saying what, in their own words.
Photo credit: Adam Gault | OJO Images | Getty Images

There's nothing like a bold, even outrageous prediction, and in compiling some 150 predictions from three-dozen staffers and contributors this year, we came away with some out-of-the-box prophecies. Though they may be bold, they are certainly in the realm of possibilities. So, take a look at who at CNBC is saying what, in their own words.

Posted Dec. 1, 2010

16. The Fed Ends QE2 Program in June
"The Federal Reserve, responding to intense political criticism and an improving economy, ends its QE2 policy after purchasing Treasuries in June. The Fed will avoid punitive legislation ... GDP growth of nearly 3 percent will ease pressure on the central bankers. By year-end, speculation will be percolating about the first Fed rate hike, which could come in early 2012."
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"The Federal Reserve, responding to intense political criticism and an improving economy, ends its QE2 policy after purchasing Treasuries in June. The Fed will avoid punitive legislation ... GDP growth of nearly 3 percent will ease pressure on the central bankers. By year-end, speculation will be percolating about the first Fed rate hike, which could come in early 2012." — Greg Valliere

15. U.S. Stock Prices Soar
"Buy, buy, buy . ... I’m calling Dow 14,000 by this time next year. Why? Highly productive firms only need a little growth right now to blow the doors off. They won’t get a lot of growth in 2011 in the U.S., but with high productivity, strong global growth, and fewer competitors, they’ll get enough."
Photo credit: Spencer Platt | Getty Images

"Buy, buy, buy . ... I’m calling Dow 14,000 by this time next year. Why? Highly productive firms only need a little growth right now to blow the doors off. They won’t get a lot of growth in 2011 in the U.S., but with high productivity, strong global growth, and fewer competitors, they’ll get enough." — Tony Fratto

14. Apple's Mac App Store Rocks PC Software Distribution
"Computers will get download-based app stores like the ones phones already have, opening up a new era for software entrepreneurs. If Apple's iOS success is any indication (and I say it is, )the Mac app store will spawn imitators. The app store is likely to help Apple continue its PC market-share gains..."
Photo credit: Getty Images

"Computers will get download-based app stores like the ones phones already have, opening up a new era for software entrepreneurs. If Apple's iOS success is any indication (and I say it is)the Mac app store will spawn imitators. The app store is likely to help Apple continue its PC market-share gains..." — Jon Fortt

13. Chinese Health Reform Will Drive Growth
"Beijing’s ambitious plan to rebuild its health care system by 2020 will continue to fuel investment in hospital expansion and medical equipment, presenting a double-digit growth opportunity for major equipment makers ... The market also poses huge growth potential for the pharmaceutical companies; Chinese spending on spending on prescription drugs is expected to grow more than 20 percent year over the next decade."
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"Beijing’s ambitious plan to rebuild its health care system by 2020 will continue to fuel investment in hospital expansion and medical equipment, presenting a double-digit growth opportunity for major equipment makers ... The market also poses huge growth potential for the pharmaceutical companies; Chinese spending on spending on prescription drugs is expected to grow more than 20 percent year over the next decade." — Bertha Coombs

12. Crude Oil Prices Surge Past $100
"Several reasons why this is a shoe-in ... Even though the dollar gets a bounce from the safety trade, especially when investors are running from European default, the trend in the dollar is lower as we dig ourselves deeper into debt. Another reason is the fundamentals. As economies around the world recover, we'll keep gulping down that light sweet crude in greater quantities."  
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"Several reasons why this is a shoe-in ... Even though the dollar gets a bounce from the safety trade, especially when investors are running from European default, the trend in the dollar is lower as we dig ourselves deeper into debt. Another reason is the fundamentals. As economies around the world recover, we'll keep gulping down that light sweet crude in greater quantities."  — Melissa Francis

11. Consumers will return to spending.
"Yes, consumers will be more frugal, but the negative pundits will be shocked that people actually do buy presents this holiday season. Sales will not only be better than last year but even mildly reminiscent of previous years. ...This holiday season will cause many to wonder about the sanity of the American public as consumption returns. Never underestimate the motivation of the American public to spend. "
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"Yes, consumers will be more frugal, but the negative pundits will be shocked that people actually do buy presents this holiday season. Sales will not only be better than last year but even mildly reminiscent of previous years. ...This holiday season will cause many to wonder about the sanity of the American public as consumption returns. Never underestimate the motivation of the American public to spend. " — Michael Yoshikami

10. America's Inflation Problem Becomes Evident
"Yes, the intelligentsia fears deflation above all, but for this space, the comment on inflation is this: Just ask China. Whether it be food or clothing, costs are already on the rise—around the world. Talk to people who shop every day. From horse feed to waffles, they'll tell you their wallets are lighter, and they're surprised about all the deflation talk."
Photo credit: iStock

"Yes, the intelligentsia fears deflation above all, but for this space, the comment on inflation is this: Just ask China. Whether it be food or clothing, costs are already on the rise—around the world. Talk to people who shop every day. From horse feed to waffles, they'll tell you their wallets are lighter, and they're surprised about all the deflation talk." — Brian Shactman

9. Bonds Keep Booming
"The secular bull market in bonds should continue through 2011. Bond investors may fear inflation, but ... secular changes will keep driving rates on all fixed-income securities to record lows—Treasuries, munis, and corporate bonds alike."
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"The secular bull market in bonds should continue through 2011. Bond investors may fear inflation, but ... secular changes will keep driving rates on all fixed-income securities to record lows—Treasuries, munis, and corporate bonds alike." — Gary Kaminsky

8. Euro Weakens Further, Nearing Parity With the Dollar
The move will come as it becomes clear to the currency markets that growth in America is stronger than anticipated and that Euorpe's peripheral countries will need to restructure their debts. The big winner from this depreciation will be Germany, which will see export volumes continue to surge."
Photo credit: Thomas Northcut | Photodisc | Getty Images

The move will come as it becomes clear to the currency markets that growth in America is stronger than anticipated and that Europe's peripheral countries will need to restructure their debts. The big winner from this depreciation will be Germany, which will see export volumes continue to surge. "
Guy Johnson

7. Ford Has Most Profitable Year Ever
"This really isn't much of a stretch given Ford Motor is currently having one of its best years ever. But in 2011, as North American sales pick up and Ford enjoys the benefits of a full year of sales from the Fiesta and Explorer, along with roll out of the re-designed Focus, Ford will crank up the profits. The roll Ford is enjoying right now is reminiscent of when Toyota was in the sweet spot a few years back."
Photo credit: Ford

"This really isn't much of a stretch given Ford Motor is currently having one of its best years ever. But in 2011, as North American sales pick up and Ford enjoys the benefits of a full year of sales from the Fiesta and Explorer, along with roll out of the re-designed Focus, Ford will crank up the profits. The roll Ford is enjoying right now is reminiscent of when Toyota was in the sweet spot a few years back." — Phil LeBeau

6. US Undergoes Nuclear Power-Plant Building Boom
"Summer-time brownouts and shovel-ready sluggishness will spark a national effort to build a nuke in every state — 50 fast-tracked, nuclear power plants to create jobs and juice needed for a great future."
Photo credit: Getty Images

"Summer-time brownouts and shovel-ready sluggishness will spark a national effort to build a nuke in every state — 50 fast-tracked, nuclear power plants to create jobs and juice needed for a great future." — Matt Nesto

5. Stars Will Monetize Their Brands
"Celebrities, who both create and curate content, will increasingly monetize their brand value. Will Smith, Ryan Seacrest, Kim Kardashian, and the like will sell content and merchanise directly to fans. We may see some celebrities self-finance videos and distribute to consumers, cutting out media conglomerates."
Photo credit: Getty Images

"Celebrities, who both create and curate content, will increasingly monetize their brand value. Will Smith, Ryan Seacrest, Kim Kardashian, and the like will sell content and merchanise directly to fans. We may see some celebrities self-finance videos and distribute to consumers, cutting out media conglomerates." — Julia Boorstin

4. Netflix Sells Off and is Acquired
"Netflix's stock gets rocked as the company's margins take a hit, the result of a price war over video streaming ... The stock will lose three-quarters of its value, as the market for streaming video becomes more competitive and commodity like, and Netflix will be acquired. After a lengthy bidding war, which drags in Apple and Amazon, the winner is: Google."
Photo credit: Getty Images

"Netflix's stock gets rocked as the company's margins take a hit, the result of a price war over video streaming ... The stock will lose three-quarters of its value, as the market for streaming video becomes more competitive and commodity like, and Netflix will be acquired. After a lengthy bidding war, which drags in Apple and Amazon, the winner is: Google." — Herb Greenberg

3. New Pressures for Banks
"Banks will be under renewed stress as housing prices fall and loan losses reaccelerate. Another round of capital raises may be in the offing as more and more banks find themselves undercapitalized .... Bank failures may also accelerate, and industry consolidation will result in an even higher concentration of assets held at a handful of huge banks. Investors will seek out the strongest, best capitalized banks and avoid the undercapitalized."

"Banks will be under renewed stress as housing prices fall and loan losses reaccelerate. Another round of capital raises may be in the offing as more and more banks find themselves undercapitalized .... Bank failures may also accelerate, and industry consolidation will result in an even higher concentration of assets held at a handful of huge banks. Investors will seek out the strongest, best capitalized banks and avoid the undercapitalized." — Michael Farr

2. US Military Action in Yemen
"Due to growing terrorism fears over a disintegrating Yemen, there will be direct U S military action there. Concerns about terrorist activities spilling into Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s neighbor to the north, will amplify concerns over the region and engender significant action against Al Qaeda assets in the country."
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"Due to growing terrorism fears over a disintegrating Yemen, there will be direct U S military action there. Concerns about terrorist activities spilling into Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s neighbor to the north, will amplify concerns over the region and engender significant action against Al Qaeda assets in the country."
John Kilduff

1. Jamie Dimon Retires
"Next year, Jamie Dimon will reach his 55th birthday. Why would he retire at this point? Because his job is over. Under his leadership, JPMorgan Chase has emerged as the most successful of the country ' s biggest banks. Almost alone among his peers, Dimon made it through the financial crisis better off than he entered it. Dimon may stay on as chairman of the board, however. "
Photo credit: Toshifumi Kitamura | AFP | Getty Images

"Next year, Jamie Dimon will reach his 55th birthday. Why would he retire at this point? Because his job is over. Under his leadership, JPMorgan Chase has emerged as the most successful of the country ' s biggest banks. Almost alone among his peers, Dimon made it through the financial crisis better off than he entered it. Dimon may stay on as chairman of the board, however."
John Carney

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