Arturo Estrella has a message for recession naysayers: It could hit sooner than you think.Marketsread more
Local governments commonly share single service providers, making many vulnerable at once. On top of this, ransomware has often been used to mask more targeted, malicious...Technologyread more
Salesforce released its first earnings report since its $15.3 billion acquisition of Tableau Software, the company's largest deal ever.Technologyread more
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell faces the tough challenge of presenting a unified voice on Fed policy from the most divided Fed in years.Market Insiderread more
Kudlow also confirmed to CNBC that he supported a tax cut proposal floated earlier Thursday by Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.Politicsread more
VMware is following through on its proposal to buy Pivotal, a fellow Dell subsidiary, and expanding into cybersecurity with the acquisition of Carbon Black.Technologyread more
Google says it shut down hundreds of YouTube channels tied to misinformation around the Hong Kong protests.Technologyread more
It is a rare scenario where long-term interest rates suddenly fall below short-term interest rates.Real Estateread more
Investors are rushing to get a piece of its privately held rival Impossible Foods before it goes public, according to the Wall Street Journal.Food & Beverageread more
Weisler has been CEO at the company since 2015 when it split from HPE.Technologyread more
Companies want to know our values and if they work with us, "they want to be aligned with those values," Salesforce co-CEO Keith Block says.Mad Money with Jim Cramerread more
Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees a scary good news-bad news scenario unfolding in 2018: A solid push higher in the first half followed by all sorts of potential trouble after.
The would peak out around 2,863 in the scenario, or about 11 percent higher than Monday's close. Bond yields are expected to rise, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hitting 2.75 percent as global GDP growth reaches 3.8 percent.
That setting assumes three things: the "last vestiges" of stimulus from the Fed and other central banks, the passage of tax reform in Congress, and "full investor capitulation into risk assets" on better-than-expected corporate earnings.
After that, though, things get considerably sketchier as the second-longest bull market in history runs into trouble.
"We believe the air in risk assets is getting thinner and thinner, but the Big Top in price is still ahead of us," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofAML, said in a report for clients. "We will downgrade risk aggressively once we see excess positioning, profits and policy."
Indicators that market positioning has gotten out of hand and signaling a fall would include active funds attracting more money than passive (there's a $476 billion gap this year in favor of passive), and portfolio allocation for equities exceeding 63 percent, a level currently at 61 percent.
Hartnett pointed out that the current bull will be the longest in history if it continues to Aug. 22, 2018, while the outperformance of stocks versus bonds, at seven years running, would be the longest streak since 1929.
The forecast is predicated on three core beliefs: The first is the aforementioned capitulation; the second an expectation of "peak positioning, profits and policy" that "will engender peak asset price returns" and a low in volatility; and, finally, an expectation that higher inflation and corporate debt along with tighter monetary policy will roil the corporate bond market, a critical prong of the risk asset rally.
"The game changer is wage inflation, which on our forecasts is likely to become more visible," said Hartnett, who projects that salaries could rise 3.5 percent and push the consumer price index up 2.5 percent and convince the Fed that it's close to meeting its 2 percent inflation goal.
However, that cuts both ways: Should wage inflation again fail to materialize, Hartnett said "the era of excess liquidity" continues, bond yields would fall and the Nasdaq tech barometer would go "exponential." That would signal a bubble that might not end until 2019, when a bear market would be triggered by "hostile Fed hiking, Occupy Silicon Valley and War on Inequality politics."
"Big Top" trades favor technology, homebuilders, Japanese banks and the dollar against the Swiss franc.
BofAML's forecast comes as Goldman Sachs released a price target of 2,850 for the S&P 500, after a comparatively bearish 2016 call for 2,400 that was passed six months ago.
WATCH: Art Cashin talks about why the market is so obsessed with tax reform.