My top 10 things to watch Monday, April 3
1. OPEC+ surprise: The oil cartel announced it will slash output by 1.16 million barrels per day, calling it a "precautionary measure" aimed at stabilizing prices. Cuts will start in May through end of 2023. What does it mean? It's a reason to start selling because the demand side is tepid.
2. How are we approaching the market week ahead? I wrote my Sunday column this week about how we got to this current bull market — going all the way back to 1982 to show how investor thinking has changed through several crises. I also explained that we are indeed in a bull market, but that things could get a bit rocky from here.
3. Macy's (M) upgraded to buy from hold for the first time since 2015 at JPMorgan. Analyst Matthew Boss also increased his price target by a buck to $29, citing favorable risk-to-reward setup at current stock price. The retailer currently trades at just 2 times its 2024 EBITDA, 50% below the average of stocks in department store category. I had outgoing CEO Jeff Gennette on last week and heartily agree with this call. Five points: win with fashion; deliver clear value; excel in digital fashion; modernize supply chain; enable transformation under Tony Spring, the current Bloomingdales CEO tapped to succeed Gennette. Bloomies is doing exceptionally well. Shares of Macy's popped nearly 4% in the premarket.
4. Tesla (TSLA) delivery of more than 420,000 vehicles for the first quarter is a record, but there were people with a higher whisper. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected the EV maker to report 432,000. Give me a break. These sales validate the gains. Tesla repeatedly cut prices during the first quarter, sparking a price war. Price cuts work.
5. Endeavor (EDR) and WWE to merge — big deal. Extremely complicated: Endeavor, the parent company of UFC, will own a 51% stake in the new combat sports and entertainment company. WWE shareholders will have the remaining 49%. Ari Emanuel will act as CEO of both Endeavor and the new company, which will be all about synergies ... good move.
6. Paychex (PAYX) — still a lot of hatred. Barclays raised price target to $109 from $105, but keeps underweight rating. Bank of America downgrades to sell from hold on worries of an economic slowdown. I just had Paychex CEO John Gibson on and there are no signs of this. Risk to valuation. This stock has been a horse for ages and there has been tremendous hatred the whole way.
7. Bernstein upgrades Intel (INTC) to hold from sell, noting the negatives are well known. The medium-term outlook is improving and numbers may be low enough to stand. Analyst acknowledged downgrade of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in January was the wrong given the huge run up in the stock.
8. Indeed, AMD was one of the Club's biggest winners for the first quarter, with shares advancing more than 51%. We ran through our top 4 stocks so far this year, and our 4 biggest laggards, and discussed what happened to each name.
9. Shocking call: BMO upgrades SL Green Realty (SLG) to buy from hold. Despite concerns over office demand and bank exposure to commercial real estate, along with the company's high leverage, BMO believes the stock is oversold. Analyst notes SLG is the third most-shorted U.S. real estate investment trust, so it's ready for a bounce.
10. Another busy week of macroeconomic data will kick of the new quarter, following a volatile first quarter for stocks that ultimately finished up. The market's second quarter kicks off Monday with the ISM manufacturing, followed on Tuesday by data on factory orders.
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