Dow closes higher Tuesday as hope grows that Fed is done raising rates: Live updates

Stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 83.51 points, or 0.24%, to 35,416.98. The S&P 500 added 0.10% to 4,554.89. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.29% to 14,281.76.

— Pia Singh

Bank of America's Savita Subramanian is bullish on next year's market — not because of hopes that the Federal Reserve will no longer raise interest rates, she said, but because of how the market has handled what the Fed has already done.

The firm anticipates the S&P hitting 5,000 by the end of 2024. The S&P 500 hovered around flat on Tuesday at 4,552.5.

"There's a high probability of pullbacks next year around various areas of concern, but I do think that we're in a healthier market setup than we have been in a long time," Subramanian, Bank of America's head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, said on "Squawk Box" earlier Tuesday.

"The higher interest rates are gonna hit a lot of pockets of the economy, not necessarily public equities, because public equities have been marked for this environment," she said. "What I worry more about is all the stuff sloshing around in private equity, private credit, the shadow lending machine that's been taking place for the last 10-15 years. But public equity right now is marked to exactly what's happened, and that is a high interest rate environment."

— Pia Singh

Oil prices rebounded Tuesday as traders speculate about OPEC production cuts while a fierce storm forced Kazakhstan to slash its output.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for January rose $1.55, or 2.07%, to settle at $76.41 a barrel, while the Brent crude contract January gained $1.70, or 2.13%, to settle at $81.68.

OPEC and its allies, OPEC+, are scheduled to meet virtually Thursday, with most analysts expecting the group will at least extend current cuts into 2024.

OPEC delegates told Bloomberg Monday that Saudi Arabia is pressing members to reduce their production quotas but Riyadh is being met with resistance.

"While oil is waiting for the OPEC plus agreement, speculation about a deal or no deal or a surprise cut continues to move markets," said Phil Flynn with the Price Futures Group.

The upside from cuts should be capped given OPEC members have low appetite for compliance these days, said Tamas Varga with OVM Oil Associates.

Kazakhstan's largest oilfields, meanwhile, have slashed output by 56% as a storm on the Black Sea disrupts exports.

-- Spencer Kimball

Despite muted trading on Tuesday, the three major indexes are on track to post major monthly gains.

The Dow is poised to finish the November trading month, which concludes with Thursday's closing bell, 6.9% higher. That would amount to the best monthly performance since October of 2022, when the blue-chip average added 14%.

The S&P 500 is on pace to end November up by 8.6%. The Nasdaq Composite has outperformed, climbing 10.8% so far in 2023's penultimate month.

If those performances hold, it would mark the best month for both since July of 2022. During that month, the broad S&P 500 advanced 9.1%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq jumped 12.4%.

— Alex Harring

The early signs of consumer strength at the start of the holiday shopping season appear to be making investors more comfortable with retail stocks.

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) rose about 1%, on Tuesday, outperforming the broader market and erasing the modest decline the fund suffered on Monday.

Among the fund's top holdings, Foot Locker was one of the best performers, gaining nearly 3%.

— Jesse Pound

Don't be surprised if Salesforce estimates inch higher after the software company likely tops a low bar set for its third-quarter print due out after the bell Wednesday, according to Oppenheimer.

"Our F3Q earnings preview research mosaic points to mixed business trends for Salesforce this quarter but good support for CRM as an attractive EPS compounder at current multiples," wrote Brian Schwartz in a Tuesday note. "In our view, Salesforce's business will display F3Q results modestly ahead of a low bar set by guidance last quarter."

Given the already low sentiment toward the name, the analyst expects any generative artificial intelligence or data cloud-related news to serve as potential catalysts for shares. The company also looks situated to compound EPS growth by 20% or more, he said.

Meanwhile, customer surveys also suggest that Salesforce should be able to meet its expectations for fiscal year 2025, Schwartz said, adding that management appears to be "doing a good job navigating a challenging operating environment."

The firm retained its outperform rating and $250 price target, implying about 11% upside from Monday's close. The stock's rallied more than 69% this year.

— Samantha Subin

Oil rose slightly Tuesday as traders hope for a deeper production cut by OPEC and Kazakhstan slashes output due to a storm.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for January rose 54 cents, .72%, to 75.40 a barrel, while the Brent contract for January ticked up 57 cents, or .71%, to $80.55 a barrel.

Traders continue to weigh whether OPEC and its allies, OPEC+, will simply roll over current production cuts into 2024 or slash deeper at a meeting Thursday. OPEC sources told Reuters Monday that a deeper cut is on the table.

Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has slashed output in its three largest oilfield by 56% due to storms on the Black Seas that have impacted the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

-- Spencer Kimball

Here are some the names making the biggest moves midday:

• PDD Holdings — The international e-commerce company's U.S. stock popped 18.5% after PDD reported a big earnings and revenue beat. Revenue for the third quarter soared 94% year over year.
• Twilio — Shares rose nearly 4% after CNBC reported activist investor Anson Funds has built a stake in the enterprise software company. Anson sent a letter to Twilio's board pushing for the sale of the entire business, according to a person familiar with the matter.
• SpringWorks Therapeutics — The biopharmaceutical stock jumped 22.5% after the Food and Drug Administration late Monday approved SpringWorks Therapeutics' drug Ogsiveo for a rare type of non-cancerous tumor. Ogsiveo will be available in the United States in five to ten business days.

To see more companies making midday moves, read the full story here.

— Michelle Fox

The initial public offering market has picked up once again as interest rates stabilize and the stock market rallies into the year end.

Chinese-founded fast-fashion company Shein has confidentially filed to go public in the U.S. as soon as 2024. Meanwhile, Kim Kardashian's shapewear label Skims is reportedly discussing strategic options including an IPO that could come next year. Social media firm Reddit has reportedly restarted talks about an IPO.

The slew of action followed mix performance from a handful of big-ticket debuts in the past few months. Shares of grocery delivery company Instacart and German shoe brand Birkenstock have both slid below their IPO price, while chip giant Arm — 2023's biggest IPO — has seen sizable gains in its share price.

The IPO market experienced a big lull in 2022 and early 2023 as an aggressive Federal Reserve, recession fears and geopolitical risks diminished appetite. Companies are now hoping to test the waters with hopes that the Fed is done hiking and will engineer a soft landing, which would keep the market hot.

— Yun Li

The Dow performed the best of the three major indexes in Tuesday morning trading, boosted by Boeing and 3M shares.

The blue-chip index rose 0.3%, while Boeing and 3M each added close to 2%. Nike and Chevron were also among the top performers in the average, posting gains of more than 1% each.

Less than one-third of the 30 stocks in the index traded lower in the session. Disney was the only Dow member down more than 1%.

— Alex Harring

Affirm shares spiked at the open to a fresh 52-week high, and were up more than 5% in recent trading. Earlier Tuesday, Jefferies upgraded the stock to hold from underperform, saying the risk in the stock has dissipated as the value of the shares has been cut in half since February 2022. Still, Affirm shares have more than tripled since the start of 2023.

Analyst John Hecht said Affirm's cost of capital has stabilized and so has credit performance. He also cited "ongoing momentum" in the buy now pay later business.

Hecht's comments come as Adobe Analytics reports all-time high usage of BNPL services on Cyber Monday. The firm said these types of payment plans were used in $940 million of online sales, up 42.5% year over year, on Monday alone. Looking at the total season, Adobe said BNPL contributed to $8.3 billion in sales, or 17% higher than last year's tally, during the same time frame last year.

According to Adobe, Cyber Monday shoppers were using the payment method to purchase more items per transaction and the value of the car was "increasingly larger."

Shoppers have increased the pace of their online purchases this year, but are very focused on getting the most for their money. Consumers have been beaten up over the past year by inflation, which has pushed up prices for groceries and housing, as well as the resumption of student loan payments.

—Christina Cheddar Berk

Consumer confidence improved in November even as most still expect a recession ahead.

The Conference Board's index rose to 102 for the month, up from a downwardly revised 99.1 from October and slightly ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 101.

However, the expectations index came in at just 77.8 — readings below 80 are consistent with recession, and the gauge has been there now for three months in a row. The Present Situation Index was little changed at 138.2.

—Jeff Cox

Micron Technology shares slumped more than 3% even after the memory chip maker lifted its fiscal first-quarter guidance.

The company said it expects revenue to approach $4.7 billion for the period, ahead of its previous expectation for $4.4 billion, citing "improved supply and demand balance" and pricing. That also came in ahead of a $4.4 billion estimate from FactSet.

Micron also said it expects non-GAAP operating expenses to come in at $990 million, ahead of the $900 million previously expected.

— Samantha Subin

U.S. Steel has attracted five interested buyers, sources told CNBC's David Faber.

Final bids in the auction are due Friday but the process is unlikely to wrap up next week given the number of interested parties, the sources said.

Cleveland-Cliffs and ArcelorMittal are known bidders for U.S. Steel. The other three interested parties are unclear at the moment.

U.S. Steel's stock rose 1.42% Tuesday morning.

-- Spencer Kimball

The busiest retail season of the year is off to a very merry start online, according to Adobe Analytics data. Look at the impressive stats:

• From 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. ET, $15.7 million was being spent online every minute, Adobe said.
• The result of the shopping frenzy was that a record $12.4 billion was spent on Cyber Monday, or a 9.6% gain from last year's online sales event, the firm said.
• The tally for the five-day Thanksgiving shopping spree is $38 billion, or 7.8% year over year.
• That brings the holiday season total to $109.3 billion spent online since the start of November, or about 7.3% above last year's level.

But will the whole season be as jolly? Time will tell. The big questions include how much shopping is being done in stores? And have consumers completed checking off their holiday shopping lists?

So far apparel sales have dominated what's being purchased online, with sales up 189% from an average day in October, Adobe said. Other categories that saw big sales jumps are: appliances (up 166%) and toys (up 140%).

—Christina Cheddar Berk

Here's how the major indexes opened on Tuesday:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 11 points, or less than 0.1%.
• The S&P 500 lost about 0.1%.
• The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%.

— Pia Singh

Housing prices continued to move higher in September despite pressures in the real estate market and expectations that shelter costs will start falling.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index for 20 large markets in the U.S. posted a 12-month increase of 3.9%, according to data released Tuesday. That was in-line with the Dow Jones estimate and higher than the 2.1% gain in August.

On a broader level, the measure converging all nine U.S. census divisions also posted a 3.9% annual increase, compared to 2.5% in August.

—Jeff Cox

Check out some of the companies making headlines in premarket trading.

• Affirm — The fintech provider of "buy now pay later" services rose 2% after an upgrade to hold at Jefferies on Tuesday. The upgrade was underpinned by "recent evidence of stabilizing cost of capital and capital markets activity, stabilizing (if not improving) credit performance, and ongoing momentum in adoption rates for BNPL."
• Boeing — The maker of 737 Max jetliners gained about 2% premarket after an upgrade to outperform at RBC Capital Markets. Analyst Ken Herber said the 2024 outlook for Boeing is more favorable as demand in both the company's commercial and defense segments grows more sustainable.
• Crocs —The maker of iconic, soft footwear rose more than 2.3% on the heels of an upgrade to strong buy at Raymond James on Tuesday. Analyst Rick Patel is more confident on Crocs' business structure heading into 2024, and thinks the stock's price-to-earnings ratio is "highly discounted given our expectation of moderate revenue growth."

Read the full list here.

— Brian Evans

Tuesday is another fairly slow morning for the market as investors await this week's major catalysts, including earnings, inflation data and the OPEC+ meeting, according to Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli.

"The big focus for Tues will be on sell-side conference presentations and earnings after the close (CRWD, HPE, INTU, NTAP, SPLK, and WDAY are the major ones)," Crisafulli wrote in an email, adding that U.S. home prices for September, the Conference board conference survey for November and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November are other key items for the day. Fresh inflation data will be released Thursday.

So far, he noted that central bankers haven't said anything out of the ordinary this week and economic data has also been minimal. The ceasefire extension in Gaza isn't a big market mover either, according to Crisafulli, as investors no longer view the war as a major source of oil supply risk.

— Pia Singh

Wolfe Research strategist Rob Ginsberg thinks investors could benefit from a more defensive stance at this moment.

"Based on a few factors ... we believe it might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month's violent rally. The overbought signal that we discussed last week is the obvious one, but as we all know, that condition can persist, so it's important to look for signs that momentum is starting to peter out," Ginsberg wrote.

— Fred Imbert

Taiwan-listed shares of iPhone manufacturer Foxconn climbed almost 1% after the company announced a $1.5 billion investment in India.

Foxconn, which trades as Hon Hai Precision Industry in Taiwan, saw its shares stand at 102.5 New Taiwan dollars ($3.26) on Tuesday.

The investment in India is a construction project, and is aimed at fulfilling the Apple supplier's "operational needs," the company announced in Taiwanese security filing.

Read the full story here.

— Lim Hui Jie, Rohan Goswami

The Thai baht strengthened 0.4% to 34.93 against the dollar in early trading on Tuesday.

Thailand's currency reached as much as 34.86 against the greenback, marking its strongest level since late August.

Official data on Monday showed Thailand's exports climbing in October at its fastest pace since June 2022.

Exports rose 8% last month on an annual basis, but was still below a Reuters poll forecast of a 9.3% year-on-year increase.

Focus will now shift to the Bank of Thailand's policy meeting on Wednesday, where it will likely hold its key interest rate at 2.5%, according to economists polled by Reuters.

The BOT raised its key interest rate for an eighth consecutive time at its September policy meeting and said economic growth and inflationary pressures should pick up next year.

— Shreyashi Sanyal

Hong Kong recorded its first annual increase in exports since April 2022, according to government data for October released Monday.

Exports from Hong Kong rose 1.4% last month, in positive territory after a 5.3% contraction in September. Imports also recorded an increase of 2.6% in October, against a decline of 0.4% in the prior month.

The rise in exports was led by Asian regions, including India, Vietnam, Thailand and mainland China. Singapore, the Philippines and Taiwan record decrease in exports from Hong Kong.

"The pick-up was largely attributable to an improvement in exports to mainland China which rose 5.6% yoy, the first increase since February 2022," analysts at Commerzbank wrote in client note.

"Given Hong Kong's role in re-exports of Chinese products, particularly in electronics, the improvement in trade performance suggests a better near-term outlook for mainland China's exports."

— Shreyashi Sanyal

The stock market rally should expand in 2024 as more sectors show strong earnings trends, according to Scott Chronert, U.S. equity strategist at Citi.

"The big call for '24 is going to one of broadening or not away from this mega-cap growth leadership towards other areas of the market," he said on CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime." "We're of the view increasingly that that broadening is being setup by what should be a more consistent pattern of sector earnings trends up and to the right, in a positive direction."

He noted the firm expects the S&P 500 to hit 5,000 points by mid 2024. That's nearly 10% higher than Monday's closing level at 4,550.43.

— Alex Harring

It's time to revisit smaller technology stocks such as Zoom Video Communications and Peloton in 2024, according to Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at NYU Stern School of Business.

Both names appear undervalued after their selloff this year, and could start to rebound, the finance professor said. Zoom Video Communications is off by more than 3% in 2023, while Peloton shares plunged 31%, as higher interest rates dented the prospects of growth stocks.

"You look at stocks, Zoom and Peloton and those stocks, are way below where they were two years ago," Damodaran told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Monday.

"Now, two years ago, of course, they were all overvalued, but I wouldn't be surprised if you saw — especially if the market stays healthy and the economy doesn't go into recession — some of those small tech stocks that have been left on the wayside try to make up some ground this coming year."

— Sarah Min

The S&P 500 could touch the 4,800 level next year as investors digest a changing macroeconomic environment underpinned by the 2024 election, according to Renaissance Macro Research chairman and head of technical research Jeff deGraaf.

"I think at this stage you want to play it for the next eight weeks or so, and then we'll see at the beginning of the year, seasonal election years do tend to be flat the first half," deGraaf told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Monday. "I could easily see us up around 4800 on the upside for the S&P and maybe go sideways for an extended period of time as we kind of digest the potential for the election in 2024."

— Brian Evans

Zscaler slid nearly 7% in after-hour trading as billings guidance took focus from an otherwise strong report.

The cybersecurity cloud stock beat forecasts of analysts polled by LSEG on both lines and issued a strong full-year outlook for earnings and revenue. But the company kept its expectations for billings unmoved for the year, pushing investors to reduce exposure to the stock.

Despite the slide, it has been a banner year for shares. The stock has soared 71.5% this year, while the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) has added just over 26.2%.

CrowdStrike, a competitor, also fell more than 1% in extended trading.

Both stocks hit highs not seen in at least a year during Monday's session.

— Alex Harring, Robert Hum, Ethan Kraft

Stock futures saw muted moves shortly after 6 p.m. ET.

Dow futures rose around 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were both near flat.

— Alex Harring