This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Stocks snapped their losing streak. Analysts are divided on whether it's a false rally.
What you need to know today
- A year after Russia's unprovoked war, Ukraine's economy and infrastructure lie in wreckage. The country's GDP shrank by 35% in 2022 and the poverty rate might rise to almost 60% this year, estimated the World Bank.
- U.S. stocks rebounded Thursday as all major indexes closed in the green. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.09% as Bank of Japan governor nominee Kazuo Ueda said the country's ultra-loose monetary policy is "appropriate" despite inflation reaching a 41-year high of 4.2%.
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC that he thinks the Federal Reserve "lost a little bit of control of inflation." Dimon expects interest rates to "possibly" remain higher and says inflation may take "a while" to subside.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC's Tanvir Gill that the country will resume economic talks with China "at an appropriate time." Tensions between the countries are especially high since the U.S. shot down a Chinese "spy balloon" over U.S. airspace. There are also U.S. and European worries that China is lending support to Russia amid Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
- PRO Analysts cannot agree if we are still in a bear market, or if a new bull market underway — and there are reliable indicators backing each case. In this confusing market, it's best to stay open-minded, writes CNBC's Michael Santoli.
The bottom line
Markets snapped their losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.33%. The Nasdaq Composite, boosted by a huge 14.02% spike in Nvidia, rose 0.72%. The S&P 500 added 0.53%, ending the trading session at 4,012.32 points — dispelling fears, if only for now, that the index could remain below 4,000 points this year.
Even though stocks have staged a rebound, analysts warn that markets are not out of the woods yet. "The market has not priced in the risk of recession," said BankRate's Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride. A note from Societe Generale was harsher, saying markets have entered a "Death Zone" — where there is little valuation support for the levels stocks are at now.
Not everyone is pessimistic about the state of the markets, however. Brendan Murphy, head of core fixed income, North America at Insight Investment, thinks the U.S. economy can avoid a recession while bringing inflation down to 2%. "We are now in a period of low growth and moderating inflation," said Murphy.
Newly released data seems to back him. On Thursday, fourth-quarter gross domestic product in the U.S. was revised down from 2.9% to 2.7% on an annualized basis — consumer spending wasn't as strong as initially estimated. While that means it's possible for markets to advance further this year, two pieces of data coming out Friday — January's personal consumption expenditures price index and personal income report — will test that idea.
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