Stocks rebound to start week, Dow rallies 500 points for best day since June: Live updates

Stocks closed higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 511.37 points, or 1.58%, to 32,928.96. The S&P 500 jumped 1.2% to 4,166.82. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.16% to 12,789.48.

— Sarah Min

Stocks remained higher during late afternoon trading Monday after the Treasury Department said it will borrow $776 billion in the final three months of the year. That was lower than the roughly $800 billion expected by strategists at JPMorgan Chase.

In July, the last time the Treasury released its borrowing needs, the amount surprised markets and drove yields to their highest levels since 2007.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 563 points, or 1.8%. The S&P 500 jumped 1.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.3%.

— Sarah Min, Jeff Cox

The S&P 500 is rallying to start the week, but Ari Wald of Oppenheimer still sees more downside ahead.

"The breach of the S&P 500's 200-day average indicates that the correction since July hasn't run its course," Wald, the firm's head of technical analysis, wrote in a note. "We see 4,050 as next support and, to mark improvement, we're watching for a key reversal day, or a rally back above 4,240."

The S&P 500 traded around 4,162 on Monday.

"Most interesting about the correction is that risk has been dragged lower by safety. This is why we believe long-term opportunity is being presented," he noted.

— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom

Oil prices fell on Monday as investors closely followed the Israel-Hamas war while readying for the Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week.

Brent fell 2.9% at $87.88 per barrel. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures declined 3.5% to $82.59 per barrel.

— Alex Harring, Lee Ying Shan

Regional bank stocks were outperforming on Monday, even as the 10-year Treasury yield moved higher once again.

The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) was up 1.3% in afternoon trading.

M&T Bank was one of the best performers in the fund, rising 2.9%. Zions Bancorp. jumped 2.2%.

Meanwhile, shares of Western Alliance gained 1.9%, while Regions Financial added 1.8%.

— Jesse Pound

Verizon, Goldman Sachs and Nike led the Dow higher on Monday as the index regained some ground near the end of a tough month.

The three stocks climbed more than 3% in the session, helping the blue-chip average advanced about 1.5% as a whole. Intel was the only stock of the 30 in the index on pace to end the day lower.

Despite Monday's rally, the Dow is still poised to end October 1.8% down.

— Alex Harring

Under current market conditions, Raymond James forecasts modest headwinds for the S&P 500, whereas the S&P 400 midcap index may see modest tailwinds.

"Across economic metrics with the highest correlations to equity returns, equity trends are about neutral to equity returns currently, meaning if they worsen we should expect equity markets to weaken, and if they strengthen, we should expect equity markets to strengthen," analyst Tavis McCourt said in a Sunday note.

Looking at ongoing year-over-year trends, the firm said that credit spreads, the Leading Economic Index and the Copper/Gold ratio are the most correlated economic variables to equity prices historically.

— Hakyung Kim

The S&P 500 is off to a solid start Monday after entering oversold territory last week. To be sure, Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis noted similar rebound attempts earlier in the year weren't longlasting.

Specifically Cappelleri noted that a rebound attempt off the August lows "faded aggressively."

"Potential bullish patterns were thwarted, and new lows eventually resulted – all of which the SPX has to avoid repeating for any rally to prove meaningful – whether that starts now or at some other time in the near future," he said.

— Fred Imbert

Markets will be watching closely Monday when the Treasury Department issues its quarterly financing estimates and economic statement at 3 p.m. ET.

The announcement will detail the government's borrowing needs for the next three quarters and how it sees financing conditions unfolding.

Last time the Treasury released its statement, in late July, markets were surprised by how much borrowing the government would need, and yields popped soon after to their highest levels in 16 years. Markets are hoping that expectations are more evenly calibrated this time around.

On Wednesday, the Treasury will release its refunding statement, which will set auction levels and dates.

—Jeff Cox

These are some of the stocks making the biggest moves midday:

• McDonald's — Shares gained 2.3% after the company beat both top and bottom lines for the third quarter. 
• Western Digital — Shares of the data storage company popped 6% after beating analyst in the fiscal first quarter. 
• Revvity — The scientific product maker tumbled 17% after offering a weak quarterly report and soft full-year guidance.

See the full list here.

— Alex Harring

Despite the recent pullback in technology names, Fundstrat's Tom Lee is bracing for the elite group of stocks to potentially lead the S&P 500 higher into the end of 2023.

"The mood of investors has turned somewhat cautious, so they faded decent earnings," he told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Monday. "I don't think FAANG fundamentals are weaker — they're still at the center of this AI, secular story."

Many major megacap technology stocks sold off last week despite mostly solid earnings, with Alphabet posting its worst week on record since March 2020.

— Samantha Subin

ON Semiconductor was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 during midday trading. It last tumbled more than 18% after the semiconductor supplier company issued weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance.

ON Semiconductor posted per-share earnings guidance in the range of $1.13 to $1.27, lower than the $1.36 earnings per share expected by analysts polled by FactSet. It issued revenue guidance in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, also lower than the $2.18 billion consensus estimate.

Otherwise, the semiconductor name topped third-quarter earnings and revenue expectations.

— Sarah Min

The likelihood of a fourth-quarter rally has "fallen considerably" over the past month, according to Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson. 

Wilson has been forecasting the S&P 500 ending the year at 3900, making him among the most bearish strategists on Wall Street according to CNBC's Market Strategist Survey. While he noted in a Sunday note to clients that initial bullish sentiments waned in September — before picking up again this month on expectations of better third-quarter earnings and seasonal strength into the year-end — his lower estimate for the broad market index remains. 

To read more about his call, click here.

— Hakyung Kim

Although the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on oil prices has been more limited than expected so far, the World Bank says an escalation of the conflict could push global commodity markets into "uncharted waters."

The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook offered three scenario forecasts for oil supplies and prices. Under the Bank's baseline forecast, it sees oil prices to average $90 a barrel in the current quarter and falling to $81 a barrel in 2024 as global economic growth slows.

If the conflict were to escalate, however, it sees prices gaining ground. In the case of a "small disruption scenario, the Bank estimates oil prices could rise to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel. In a "medium disruption scenario," which it says is roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003, oil prices could climb up to a range of $109 and $121. A "large disruption" scenario, comparable to the Arab oil embargo in 1973, would drive up prices to between $140 and $157 a barrel, the World Bank said.

"The latest conflict in the Middle East comes on the heels of the biggest shock to commodity markets since the 1970s—Russia's war with Ukraine," said Indermit Gill, the World Bank's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. "If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades—not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East."

— Hakyung Kim

Bank of Japan officials on Tuesday are expected to consider allowing longer-term bond yields to rise above a 1% cap amid a run-up in rates the central bank is trying to stave off, according to a report Monday.

Rising U.S. bond yields have spread globally and are pressuring their global counterparts, particularly since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently emphasized his commitment to fighting inflation. Allowing flexibility on previous yield curve caps could provide BoJ officials some breathing room, NikkeiAsia reported, citing sources familiar with the talks.

Rising U.S. bond rates have resulted in money flowing to the dollar, putting downward pressure on the yen and exacerbating inflation. Allowing some flexibility on the caps chases away speculators while helping Japan manage its own inflation issue.

The yen rose against the U.S. dollar following the Nikkei report, most recently trading at 149.21.

—Jeff Cox

Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus cut his year-end target for the S&P 500 on Monday, but still sees stocks rising before January.

"We view the three-month corrective occurrence experienced by stocks since August as likely near an end. Valuations have come down substantially across the sectors ... and resilience remains the operative word for the U.S. economy," Stoltzfus wrote in a note to clients.

Check out how Oppenheimer's view compares to others on Wall Street with the CNBC Market Strategist Survey.

— Jesse Pound

The Japanese yen was up 0.3% against the dollar after Nikkei reported, citing sources, that the Bank of Japan could adjust its yield curve control tool to led government bond yields top 1%. Currently, the BOJ caps sovereign bond yields at 1%.

— Fred Imbert

Sphere Entertainment's Las Vegas venue has caught the attention of Elon Musk.

The Tesla CEO called the venue "exquisite beyond words" in a post on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter that he also owns. The locale, which has 17,000 seats and is part of the Venetian Resort, opened with a headline-making performance from U2 in late September.

The Sphere has gained notoriety for its high-technology experience, with approximately 168,000 square feet of LED lights and 167,000 speakers.

Shares have retreated over the course of this month after initially popping following U2's opening weekend. Sphere's stock is on pace to end October down about 10.8%.

— Alex Harring

Technology stocks bounced back on Monday following a losing week that saw the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 enter correction territory.

Early technology gainers included Amazon and Meta Platforms, jumping more than 3% each. Alphabet, Nvidia and Microsoft added more than 2%, while Apple and Netflix rose more than 1% each.

— Samantha Subin

The United Auto Workers and General Motors have reached a tentative deal that will bring an end to the Detroit automaker strikes, sources told CNBC reporters Michael Wayland and Phil LeBeau.

GM is the final of the three major U.S. automakers to reach a deal with the union. Ford reached a tentative deal on Wednesday, and Chrysler-parent Stellantis followed on Saturday.

Spokespeople with the UAW and GM declined to comment Monday.

— Jesse Pound

Stocks opened higher on Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 262 points, or by 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9%.

— Sarah Min

Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner Katie Stockton thinks we may have already seen a peak in Treasury yields.

"I think the highs for now are in, at least," Stockton told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. "For the first time, and this is as we get into November, some of our long term indicators are on the verge of flashing a countertrend signal."

Stockton added that she views current market conditions as a signal that the Treasurys could be headed for consolidation over the next nine to 12 months, which she says should be a welcome event for investors.

"I think that consolidation in yields is really just what the market needs to restore confidence," she added.

— Brian Evans

Gold miners are headed for their best month since March amid higher gold prices.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was up by 8.66% month to date, or its best performance since March when the GDX gained 17.59%.

New Gold, Gold Fields and Harmony Gold were among the outperformers, all up by roughly 25% or more this month. In fact, New Gold gained nearly 31% this month, on pace for its best month since Sept. 2022 when the stock gained 34.37%

Those moves come amid rising gold prices. U.S. gold futures advanced 7.66% this month, on pace for its best month since March when gold gained 8.14%.

— Sarah Min, Gina Francolla

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield topped the 4.9% level on Monday, last rising by 6 basis points to trade at 4.905%.

— Sarah Min

Check out some of the companies making headlines in premarket trading.

McDonald's— Shares popped 2.8% after the fast-food giant reported a third-quarter earnings and revenue beat. McDonald's U.S. same-store sales rose 8.1% for the quarter thanks to price increases.

SoFi Technologies — Shares jumped 6.1% after SoFi came out with a massive revenue beat for the third quarter and raised its outlook for the full year. The financial services provider posted $531 million in revenue, while analysts expected $512.1 million, according to estimates from LSEG. Revenue was boosted by higher-than-expected student loan originations for the quarter, according to the company's earnings release.

Invitation Homes — The home leasing company added about 2% after an upgrade to outperform from Oppenheimer, with the firm highlighting a stabilization of both rent growth and occupancy — which could help lift shares heading into 2024.

Read the full list here.

— Brian Evans

Spot gold broke above the key $2,000 level on Monday for the first time in multiple months as the Israel-Hamas war drove investors to the safe-haven trade.

Spot gold added 0.3% to $2,003.40 per ounce. It was the first time the psychological $2,000 marker has been passed since mid May.

Meanwhile, gold futures shed 0.6% to $1,993.56.

The moves come as investors monitor escalations in the war, with Israel expanding its ground incursion in Gaza. Investors are also readying for the Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week, at which the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.

— Alex Harring

SoFi Technologies shares gained more than 5% in premarket trading. The online bank reported third-quarter revenue of $531 million, topping the consensus estimate of $512.1 million from LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv.

— Sarah Min

McDonald's shares traded 2% higher in the premarket after the fast food giant posted third-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations.

The company earned an adjusted $3.19 per share on revenue of $6.69 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG expected a profit of $3 per share on revenue of $6.58 billion.

Same-store sales, a key metric for restaurants, grew by 8.8% globally during the quarter, beating a StreetAccount forecast of 7.8%.

— Fred Imbert

Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge noted there are several technical factors fueling Monday's pop in stock futures, "including extremely oversold prices." The S&P 500 fell more than 2% for a second straight week.

"In addition, catalyst anticipation is playing a role too as investors hope the end of the month coupled with benign central bank decisions (BOJ, FOMC, BOE) and desired economic developments (cooler EU CPI, US JOLTs, and US jobs) will help stabilize the tape," he wrote.

"However, after three consecutive months of losses ... confidence has evaporated, and there's very little genuine interest in buying the tape," Crisafulli added.

— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom

New initiatives from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) will be announced in November, as the U.S. seeks closer ties with its trading partners in the Indo-Pacific region, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai told CNBC.

Cooperation to with U.S. partners to promote sustainability, resilience and inclusivity, is crucial "in a time of many economic challenges," Tai said on the sidelines of the G7 trade ministers' meeting in Osaka, Japan.

"We also know that we can't wait around for five or seven years for a massive trade negotiation to be completed," she added.

The initiative was launched in May last year by U.S. President Joe Biden and is the U.S.'s main economic strategy in Asia.

For more of the story, read here.

— Shreyashi Sanyal

Global growth will be impacted if the ongoing Israel-Hamas war spills into the broader Middle East region, the World Trade Organization's director-general has warned.

"If it spreads beyond where it is now, to the rest of the Middle East, there will be an impact," Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told CNBC's Martin Soong.

That's because the Middle East is "the source" of a lot of the world's natural gas and oil, the WTO chief said.

Escalating conflict could further weigh on trade growth which is already "quite grim," she added.

Read more of the story here.

– Sheila Chiang

Japan 10-year government bond yields crept closer to a 11-year high on Monday as the Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting.

Yields for the 10-year JGB climbed 2.29% on Monday to 0.893%, its highest level since it briefly reached 0.895% on Oct. 26. Before that, the last time the yield was at this level was in April 2012.

In July, the BOJ effectively broadened the yields permissible on the 10-year JGB by 50 basis points to 1% either side. 

Read CNBC's preview of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting here.

— Lim Hui Jie

S&P 500 futures opened 0.2% higher, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up a few points.

Investors appeared to be betting on a bit of an oversold bounce with all three benchmarks headed for their third-straight negative month.

—John Melloy