Dow slips 100 points to snap 3-day win streak as investors consider Fed’s latest comments: Live updates

Stocks closed Wednesday's session lower.

The Dow finished down 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each closed 0.2% lower.

— Alex Harring

Lumentum shares fell more than 4% after Barclays downgraded the maker of optical telecom components to underweight from equal weight. The bank's price target implies downside of more than 26% from Monday's close.

"[We had] downgraded to EW at earnings as we saw no catalyst through CY24 and viewed Telecom estimates as too high. Now the stock is 30% higher and has caught an AI tailwind that doesn't materially impact the fundamentals," Barclays said.

— Fred Imbert

Piper Sandler downgraded Coinbase to neutral from overweight, citing its recent lawsuit from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Coinbase shares declined 1.5% in Wednesday's session.

A lack of regulatory clarity also drove the downgrade, according to analyst Patrick Moley. While Moley noted that Coinbase shares have soared 126% year to date — with the stock surging 55% since June 6, when the SEC filed the suit — he said the appreciation has "likely been driven by a combination of rising crypto prices and a number of large asset managers filing for spot Bitcoin ETFs (some of which have named COIN as custodian)." 

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the downgrade here.

— Hakyung Kim

The odds that Federal Reserve policymakers will raise their benchmark overnight lending rate another quarter point, to 5.25%-5.50%, at their next meeting on July 26 climbed even closer to a sure thing following the release Wednesday of the minutes from their June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

As of mid-afternoon Wednesday, the probability the Fed will go in July climbed to 88.7%, up from 81.8% a week ago,  according to interest rate traders. The odds that rates will be left unchanged fell to 11.3% from 18.2% last week.

Almost three quarters, or 73.2%, of interest rate traders think the fed funds rate will stand at 5.25%-5.50% by the conclusion of the September 20 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, up from 69.1% last week. Odds that rates will stand a half point higher, at 5.50%-5.75%, by the end of the September meeting are now 17.7%, little changed from 16.4% a week ago.

— Scott Schnipper

DA Davidson upgraded shares of electric vehicle maker Rivian to neutral on Wednesday after a beat on second quarter vehicle deliveries and news its van partnership with Amazon would enter the European market sooner than expected.

Rivian said it delivered 12,640 vehicles in the second quarter, which analyst Michael Shlisky says was a "low bar" given that Wall Street expected somewhere around 11,000 units. Shlisky was more optimistic on the timeline for the company's van to enter Germany for use by Amazon delivery drivers.

"While we envisioned RIVN would eventually enter Europe with its van (as well as the R2 passenger platform in a few years), the timing is much earlier than expected," he said.

Shares were up nearly 4% in afternoon trading.

— Brian Evans

The S&P 500 just finished its best half-year since 2019 — and Renaissance Macro chairman Jeff deGraaf says the broad market index could even reach 4,600 by the end of this year. 

deGraaf was bullish on the market as far back as November 2022. He told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Wednesday that he already sees the market rally broadening.

"I think we're in pretty good shape. The trends are good, the momentum starting to pick up a little bit. We're seeing an improvement in breath. All those things are important and should be able to propel the S&P to 4600," said deGraaf.

The S&P 500 was last trading near 4,445 as of Wednesday afternoon.

— Hakyung Kim

Stocks continued to trade lower with just under an hour to go until the closing bell.

The Dow was down about 120 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each shed about 0.1%.

— Alex Harring

While tech stocks led the way higher for the market in the first half, Bank of America's Savita Subramanian expects other names to join in on the rally during the second half.

"Just to get to the historical average 12-mo. breadth of 50% by year end, about a quarter of stocks in the S&P 500 would have to climb at least 5.7% assuming the index stays flat through the year end," Subramanian said. 

"We expect breadth to continue to broaden out as seen in June, and expect the equal-weighted index to outperform the cap-weighted index in 2H," she continued. 

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about her forecast here.

— Hakyung Kim

Federal Reserve officials still have a recession as the most likely base case for the U.S. economy, but there was growing optimism at the last meeting that a true "soft landing" could be achieved.

"Given the continued strength in labor market conditions and the resilience of consumer spending, however, the staff saw the possibility of the economy continuing to grow slowly and avoiding a downturn as almost as likely as the mild-recession baseline," the minutes said.

— Jesse Pound

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note to clients Wednesday that Microsoft could join Apple in the $3 trillion market cap club in the coming months.

"With AI the next step we believe on a sum-of-the-parts valuation that MSFT should join Apple in the exclusive $3 trillion club by early 2024," Ives said.

Microsoft's Azure cloud business is poised to be a beneficiary of the booming interest in artificial intelligence, and the company has also invested billions into OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT.

Read more about Ives' prediction on CNBC Pro.

— Jesse Pound

The Federal Reserve expects to raise rates further from current levels, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, a summary from the central bank's June meeting showed.

"Many [officials] also noted that, after rapidly tightening the stance of monetary policy last year, the Committee had slowed the pace of tightening and that a further moderation in the pace of policy firming was appropriate in order to provide additional time to observe the effects of cumulative tightening and assess their implications for policy," the minutes said.

— Fred Imbert, Jeff Cox

Bad news for contrarians. Financial newsletter editors "increasingly suggest buying stocks!," Investors Intelligence headlined its latest weekly survey.

"Sentiment readings showed more bulls as the editors read the markets and suggested new buying," II said.

Bulls rallied to 54.9% in the poll, up from 50.0% last week and higher even than 54.3% two weeks ago. It was the highest bullish reading since 57.2% in November, 2021, shortly before stocks' all-time high in January, 2022.

Bearish sentiment eased to 18.3%, the fewest since early January, 2022, from 18.6% last week. Those in the correction camp fell to 28.8% from 31.4% in the prior period. The bull-bear spread widened to 36.6 points from 31.4 points the week before — the widest positive spread since November, 2021. The spread was <21 points just seven weeks ago, II said.

— Scott Schnipper

Transocean shares rallied more than 5% after Citi upgraded the company to buy from neutral.

"We think Transocean is favorably positioned among offshore drilling peers given its sizable available fleet of idle rigs returning to work in the coming years and positioning in the Golden Triangle region," analyst Scott Gruber said. 

Gruber added that the company is also well-positioned geographically among its peers, with the greatest exposure to the Golden Triangle region.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the upgrade here.

— Hakyung Kim

Check out some of the companies making headlines in midday trading:

• Moderna – The Massachusetts-based biotechnology company added 2.1% after announcing it reached an agreement with officials to manufacture and develop mRNA medicines in China.
• General Motors — The legacy automaker added climbed nearly 1% after the company said U.S. sales increased 18.8% in the second quarter.
• Coinbase — Shares of the crypto services company fell more than 2% after Piper Sandler downgraded them, saying the recent increase in crypto prices following the SEC's lawsuit against Coinbase hasn't translated to an increase in trading volume. Piper Sandler said it expects Coinbase to report its lowest trading volumes and monthly transacting users in over two years for the third quarter.

Read the full list here.

— Brian Evans

Utility and communication services stocks in the S&P 500 have been able to outperform Wednesday despite the broad market index inching down.

Both sectors were up more than 1% in the session. Real estate was the only other sector trading up with a 0.8% advance.

Materials weighed on the index with a nearly 2% drop, making it the worst performing sector.

— Alex Harring

Though the strength of the stock market's rally in the first half of 2023 was unexpected to some, Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets' head of U.S. equity strategy, said it does make sense.

While Calvasina noted some of the drivers for the market rally have turned negative, others are still helping. She said investors should continue to watch specific sectors and trends in investor sentiment.

"This market is not crazy," she said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." "It's been quite rational. We're here for good reason."

— Alex Harring

General Motors shares were last up more than 1% after the automaker reported new vehicle sales numbers on Wednesday that showed an 18.8% year-over-year increase.

The Detroit-based company said that new vehicle sales for the second quarter totaled 691,978, up from 582,401 vehicles during the year-ago period, when General Motors grappled with slew of supply chain problems.

New vehicle sales also increased from the first quarter of 2023.

— Mike Wayland, Samantha Subin

Intel shares dragged on the Dow, which was the worst performer of the three major indexes on Wednesday.

The technology stock lost more than 2%, making it the biggest loser in the 30-stock index. By comparison, the average was down about 0.2% in the session.

Nike, Goldman Sachs, 3M and Dow, Inc. were also among the worst performers in the index, with all trading more than 1% lower in Wednesday's session. On the other hand, Walgreens and Boeing were the best performers and were both able to avoid the downturn with advances larger than 1% each.

— Alex Harring

Moderna shares more than 2% on Wednesday after announcing an agreement to develop and manufacture messenger RNA drugs in China.

"These agreements are focused on strengthening health security by targeting unmet needs and contributing to the ecosystem of medical solutions available to patients in China," a spokesperson for the biotechnology company told CNBC.

Chinese media outlet Yicai first reported on Tuesday that Moderna was planning to make its first investment in China potentially worth about $1 billion, and that CEO Stéphane Bancel was visiting Shanghai.

— Annika Kim Constantino, Samantha Subin

Jefferies says it's "all revved up" on car rental company Hertz. 

The firm initiated coverage on Hertz with a buy rating and a $24 price target, implying shares jumping 30% from Monday's close. 

"Our buy rating contemplates our view that pricing and margins can run structurally higher vs pre-COVID levels driven by a dysfunctional oligopoly turned functional, HTZ's more [return on assets-focused] mindset, and continued supply constraints," analyst Stephanie Moore wrote in a Wednesday note.

Shares gained more than 0.5% in morning trading on Wednesday.

To read more about the call, click here.

— Hakyung Kim

A handful of popular technology and consumer discretionary stocks were among the S&P 500 names hitting new highs on Wednesday.

That included:

• Meta Platforms trading at levels not seen since February 2022
• Netflix trading at levels not seen since February 2022
• Carnival trading at levels not seen since April 2022
• Walmart trading at levels not seen since April 2022
• Delta Air Lines trading levels not seen since June 2021
• FedEx trading at levels not seen since February 2022
• AutoNation trading at all-time highs back to its spin from Republic Industries in 1998
• Lennar trading at all-time highs back to the share creation in April 2003
• TechnipFMC trading at all-time levels not seen since October 2019
• Builders FirstSource trading at all-time highs back to its IPO in June 2005
• Pegasystems trading at levels not seen since June 2022

— Samantha Subin, Chris Hayes

Factory orders data in May showed a rise of 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, which is lower than the 0.6% rise anticipated by economists polled by Dow Jones. It's also lower than the 0.4% increase from the previous month.

— Sarah Min

The three major indexes were lower as the market opened.

The Dow dropped 0.5%. The S&P 500 slid 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.3%.

— Alex Harring

One of the mysteries of the first half of the year was the surprisingly calm Cboe Volatility Index, which largely trended downward even as Wall Street alternated between recession fears and excitement about artificial intelligence.

The Vix, sometimes called Wall Street's fear gauge, was trading at 14.50 on Wednesday morning, a level rarely seen since before the Covid pandemic.

JJ Kinahan, the CEO of IG North America, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that the Vix will likely move slightly higher was earnings season starts up again and that the abnormally low levels were not a sign that something is wrong with the market.

"People are hesitant to be all in. As long as people continue to be hesitant, we can and continue go a bit higher, and I think we can go higher with the Vix creeping back to that 17 to 20 level," Kinahan said.

— Jesse Pound

A handful of top performers in the first half of the year took a dip before the bell Wednesday.

Technology stocks Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Tesla slid in premarket trading Wednesday, weighing on the broader futures market. Wednesday marks the first full session of the second half of the year, as Monday was shortened and Tuesday was dark for the Fourth of July holiday.

Many technology names have surged in 2023, regaining ground following 2022's selloff as investors grew excited around artificial technology and the potential for an improving interest rate environment.

— Alex Harring

Here are some of the names making moves in premarket trading:

• Rivian — The electric vehicle maker jumped 6.5%, adding to Monday's gains after the company reported 12,640 deliveries during the second quarter. The deliveries were up 59% from the previous quarter and beat analyst expectations of 11,000 vehicles, according to StreetAccount.
• Coinbase — Shares slipped more than 2% after Piper Sandler downgraded the crypto services company and said that, despite the recent market rally following the SEC's lawsuit against Coinbase, the increase in crypto prices haven't translated to an increase in trading volume
• Transocean — The offshore oil drilling company's stock rose 3.7% after Citi upgraded it to buy from neutral. Citi believes Transocean is favorably positioned among its offshore drilling peers, citing its sizable available fleet of idle rigs returning to work in the coming years.

See the full list here.

— Michelle Fox

Wednesday is the first full trading day this week since markets were dark Tuesday and closed early Monday for the Fourth of July holiday.

Here's how the indexes did in Monday's shortened session:

• The Dow added 0.03%
• The S&P 500 advanced 0.12%
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.21%

That session also marked the first of a new trading month, quarter and half-year. See the full recap of Monday's trading day here.

— Alex Harring

The Federal Reserve later Wednesday will release minutes from its June 13-14 meeting, during which officials decided to skip a rate hike but said two more likely are on the way before the end of the year.

In the post-meeting statement, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said a pause would provide time to assess the impact that 10 previous rate hikes would have.

However, the "dot plot" of rate projections indicated that members expected the pause to be temporary, and markets now expect a quarter percentage point rate hike at the July 25-26 meeting.

The minutes will be released at 2 p.m. ET.

—Jeff Cox

Netflix shares rose 0.8% Wednesday during premarket trading after Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan upgraded shares to neutral from sell. The firm also raised its price target from $230 to $400, which still represents downside of more than 9% from Monday's close. 

Sheridan stated in a Tuesday client note that "NFLX [management] has executed its password sharing initiative in excess of our prior assumptions" in addition to regaining its momentum in content creation.

To be sure, the analyst added that the muted Neutral rating reflects Goldman's "continued low visibility into the pathway to that upside node."

The stock has rallied more than 49% year to date. Sheridan noted that shares have surged 135% since the bank added Netflix to its sell list in June 2022.

— Hakyung Kim

U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes and comments from central bank officials, as well as key jobs data due later this week.

At 5:54 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by more than one basis point to 3.8409%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last trading over five basis points lower at 4.8879%.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point equals 0.01%.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Bank of America's Jill Carey Hall said the bank's clients bought $5.5 billion worth of equities last week, with single stocks and ETFS seeing sharp inflows. The flows were led by tech and communication services, which saw more than $1 billion in inflows each.

— Fred Imbert

China's service sector activity remained in positive territory for a sixth straight month, according to a Caixin/S&P Global survey released on Wednesday.

The Caixin services purchasing managers index for June came in at 53.9, a slower rate of expansion than the 57.1 recorded in May.

The survey said "business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates than seen in May, as some firms reported softer than expected market demand."

— Lim Hui Jie

Services activity in Japan remained in expansion territory in June on strong demand conditions in the economy.

The final au Jibun Bank Japan Services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell from a record high of 55.9 in May to 54 in June, both well above the 50-mark that separates contraction and growth.

"The Japanese services economy signaled that demand conditions remained positive during June," Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a Wednesday release.

Both business activity and new business were among the highest in the series history, Bhatti noted.

— Jihye Lee

May factory orders data is set to release Wednesday after the open.

Economists polled by Dow Jones are anticipating a rise of 0.6%, which would be greater than the 0.4% increase the previous month.

— Sarah Min

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday night as Wall Street looks to resume a holiday-shortened week. Markets were closed Tuesday for the Fourth of July holiday. They closed early Monday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 31 points, or 0.09%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.05% and 0.11%, respectively.

— Sarah Min