The cost of Thanksgiving dinner is going up — here's what to do about rising food prices this holiday

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With food prices going up across the board, your upcoming Thanksgiving feast could be more pricey than last year's. The traditional Thanksgiving dishes you make — like turkey, cranberry sauce, sweet potatoes, wine and dinner rolls could be pricier and more scarce this year because of increases in the cost of shipping materials, delivery disruptions and higher consumer demand. Last month, the consumer price index (which measures the average price change in a set of goods or services that consumers purchase) for food rose nearly 1% from August to September 2021 and 5.4% from September 2020. 

After Covid-19 forced many people to have smaller holiday celebrations last year, people are planning larger gatherings this year because of vaccine availability.

Larger Thanksgiving celebrations as well as labor shortages and supply-chain issues could mean higher food prices and shortages at the grocery store, says Trey Malone, an agricultural economist at Michigan State University.

Whether you're planning a small Friendsgiving or a large celebration with your entire extended family, you probably don't want to be spending through the roof on your Thanksgiving dinner. Select spoke to two economists and a budget food blogger about ways consumers can save money on Thanksgiving food shopping this year.

The crowning dish of most Thanksgiving dinners is the turkey. However, this year you might reconsider purchasing that 15 pound turkey. While there isn't a significant turkey shortage this year, you might end up paying more than you typically would.

According to a 2021 Wells Fargo report, the cost of a whole turkey (between 8 and 16 pounds) has nearly doubled since 2019 due to higher demand for turkey and lower production. The same applies to turkey breasts: If you're thinking about buying a turkey breast instead of a whole turkey this year to save money, think again. Turkey breasts typically cost more than a whole turkey and the price of turkey breasts are rising too.

So what's your best bet this Thanksgiving? Well, if you're considering opting for a different meat like pork, beef or chicken to replace the turkey, it could be slightly cheaper and easier to find, but it could still end up costing you. The CPI for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 2.2 percent between August and September and the index for beef rose 4.8 percent. In fact, the price has increased nearly 16% from August 2019 to August 2021.

The cost of all meat has gone up, in part, because the cost of feed has risen, says Michael Swanson, the Wells Fargo Chief Agricultural Economist.

So if you're looking to save money on what might be the most expensive dish in your Thanksgiving dinner, consider buying a smaller turkey or opting for a less expensive meat. If you're willing to break traditions, you could skip the Turkey entirely and rely more on a selection of tasty sides or go for a vegetarian substitute like a Tofurky (though do so at your own discretion!).

For Thanksgiving hosts, purchasing all of the ingredients and cooking all of the dishes could be costly and time-consuming. If you're considering cooking the turkey and making the sweet potatoes and cranberry sauce, you might want to rethink your plan. The cost of cranberry sauce and sweet potatoes are expected to rise because of the increased cost of shipping and storage materials, says Swanson. 

Erin Chase, a food blogger at 5 Dollar Dinners, recommends that people take a potluck approach to Thanksgiving this year by making a sign-up sheet where family members and friends can agree to make certain dishes. By taking a collective approach to cooking Thanksgiving dinner and spreading out the cost of expensive dishes, everyone will end up saving time and money.

Everyone has a different budget for their Thanksgiving dinner, but it's good to go into the holidays with a plan of how much you're willing to spend. Chase recommends that people who plan on cooking and paying for the entire meal have an idea of how much they're willing to spend per person. 

For example, if you don't want to spend more than $5 per person and there are 12 people at dinner, you should aim to spend no more than $60 in total. If you opt to do a potluck-style dinner, you should set a budget for how much you and your guests should spend per dish. So if you're bringing two dishes and don't want to spend more than $7 per dish, you shouldn't spend more than $14 in total.

By setting boundaries on the amount you're willing to spend, you'll be less susceptible to impulse purchases. You can consider substituting certain ingredients or omitting them entirely if they fall outside your budget (again, do so at your own discretion!). 

If you think you can get all of your ingredients the day before Thanksgiving, think again. 

There aren't any shortages of Thanksgiving items this year, according to Malone. Instead, there are logistical problems in getting items to the store. This means that you might not be seeing all of the ingredients you need when you go shopping.

Both Swanson and Malone recommend consumers shop as early as possible to avoid not finding what they need. You might even have to go to multiple stores to find ingredients, says Swanson.

This year, make a plan for what you're going to purchase ahead of time and consider picking up some of the ingredients that won't perish quickly far ahead of Thanksgiving day. You'll avoid the headache of not having what you need and making last-minute substitutes or changes to the dishes you're preparing.

Facing higher food prices when you go grocery shopping this holiday season is inevitable. However, Ibotta, the rebate app, is offering consumers money back on some of their Thanksgiving-related food purchases at Walmart. With rebate services, consumers buy the products before submitting receipts for the items and then are reimbursed for the cost of them.

Ibotta is currently offering rebates on items for a Thanksgiving meal, with ten different items worth nearly $23 total. The items range from a turkey to mashed potatoes to stuffing mix.

In order to receive the rebate, you'll need to download the Ibotta app or browser extension, add the offers to your list within the app or browser extension and purchase your items online or in-store. You'll receive cash-back by either linking your Walmart account with Ibotta or submitting your receipt.

This offer is available through November 24 or as long as supplies last.

If you're looking for a no-effort, simple way to save money on groceries, consider getting a credit card with rewards on grocery spending. Since grocery spending is often one of most people's largest expenses, there are a number of cards on the market that offer higher rewards on these transactions.

The Blue Cash Preferred® Card from American Express is one card that offer 6% cash back at U.S. supermarkets on up to $6,000 per year in eligible purchases (then 1%). The card has a $0 intro annual fee for the first year, then $95 (see rates and fees) and comes with a welcome bonus of as high as $300 cash back after spending $3,000 in purchases on your new Card in the first 6 months. Apply to find out your offer. If approved, you'll: 1. Find out your offer amount, 2. Accept the Card with your offer, 3. Spend $3,000 on purchases in your first 6 months 4. Receive the cash back. Cash back is received in the form of Reward Dollars that can be redeemed for a statement credit or at Amazon.com checkout. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer.

If you want a no-annual fee card, you could opt for the Blue Cash Everyday® Card from American Express (see rates and fees) which offers 3% cash back* at U.S. supermarkets on up to $6,000 per year in eligible purchases (then 1%). You're also still eligible to apply for a welcome bonus with the Blue Cash Everyday: You'll earn as high as $200 cash back* after you spend $2,000 in purchases on your new Card within the first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply, and if approved: 1. Find out your offer amount 2. Accept the Card with your offer 3. Spend $2,000 in 6 months 4. Receive the cash back.

*Cash back is received in the form of Reward Dollars that can be redeemed as a statement credit or at Amazon.com checkout..

When it comes to grocery shopping this holiday season, you'll probably have to pay more for your Thanksgiving meal than you did last year. However, if you start shopping early, you can ensure you get what you need for Thanksgiving day. Consider setting spending limits and start looking for discounts on grocery items ahead of time.

For rates and fees for the Blue Cash Everyday® Card from American Express, click here.

For the rates and fees for the The Blue Cash Preferred® Card from American Express, click here.