This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
- U.S. stocks closed slightly higher Friday, as the S&P 500 briefly touched the 4,300 level for the first time since August. But don't get your hopes up for an extended bull run in U.S markets. The current rally reminds JPMorgan Chase's Chief Investment Officer Bob Michele of the 2008 financial crisis, when stocks rallied for three months before crashing later in the year.
- Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday. China's Shanghai Composite lost around 0.3% even as the governor of China's central bank said he expects the country's second-quarter GDP to be "relatively high." But with China's weak economic growth so far, investors are flocking to China's neighbors, such as the stock markets in Japan, South Korea and India.
- Cryptocurrency tokens are stabilizing Monday after they plunged last week on the news that the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Binance and Coinbase. The SEC alleged several crypto assets, such as Solana's SOL token and Cardano's ADA token, are considered "crypto asset securities,"
- Donald Trump was indicted on federal criminal charges Thursday. The charges, which were unsealed Friday, allege Trump violated national security laws and obstructed justice. On the same day the charges were unsealed, two of Trump's lawyers quit working for him.
- PRO There's been chatter that we're finally in a new bull market. Yet it somehow doesn't feel like it, CNBC's Bob Pisani writes. Here's why, and the implications of this uncertainty for markets.
The bottom line
The bears have gone into hibernation and the bulls are charging in. Or so they say.
The S&P 500 inched up 0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.16%.
Friday's gain gave the Nasdaq its seventh consecutive winning week, a feat not seen since November 2019. The S&P had four straight weeks of gains, but more significantly, it's up 20% from its low in October. Bank of America technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier even thinks the S&P could shoot up to 5,000 by June next year.
Not everyone's convinced, though. JPMorgan's Michele, who oversees more than $700 billion in assets for the bank, said markets today "remind me an awful lot of that March-to-June period in 2008," when problems in banks and real estate were "largely dismissed" by traders.
Michele's "highly confident that we're going to be in recession a year from now." Indeed, things aren't looking rosy for the corporate world. Financial data company FactSet expects second-quarter corporate earnings for the S&P to decline 6.4% year over year, based on the pessimistic expectations companies have issued. And a recession would, of course, mean bad times for markets.
In sum: Despite calls that we're in a new bull market, it's not so certain, especially since the S&P is still more than 10% off its all-time high. Keep an eye out for the consumer price index and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week for clearer signs on whether the S&P is really on track to welcome the bulls.
